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Bradford Doolittle
Multiple Authors
This has been a banner year for elite starting pitching in the National League, even though preseason Cy Young favorite Paul Skenes has had a down season.
By and large, I consider any AXE rating to be awards-worthy once it reaches 130, which means the player has performed at a level three standard deviations better than league average. This standard usually helps narrow each race down to a precious few, but this season nearly the entire NL Cy Young top 10 is made up 130 AXEers, and this doesn’t include Tarik Skubal, whose 136 overall AXE is split across both leagues after his deadline trade from the Tigers to the Dodgers.
Despite the array of outstanding pitching in the NL, the betting markets have increasingly tilted toward young Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski as the NL Cy Young favorite. With a 150.9 pitching AXE, Misiorowski is more than qualified for the award. Yet for much of the season, though not all, he has lagged behind the Phillies’ Cristopher Sanchez in AXE.
Well, AXE is just an index, a system to sort out performances so that each narrowed-down pool of players can be considered more deeply. So let’s do that with NL Cy Young front-runners Misiorowski, Sanchez, Chris Sale, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jesus Luzardo, starting with a table of the metrics that feed AXE, along with some others.
Good luck voters! With advanced numbers all over the place, it might simply come down to this: Misiorowski has the “wow!” factor in a big way, leads the NL with a sub-2.00 ERA and is the ace of the NL’s best regular-season team. Though AXE can justifiably disagree, the case for Misiorowski is very easy to make.
Here’s another way to look at it to make it even easier. So far this season, I haven’t mentioned anything about game score win-loss records, one method by which I monitor the consistency of starters. The idea is simple: If you post a higher game score than the opposing pitcher, per a modified version of the old Bill James formula, you get a W. If you don’t, you get an L. From there, I turn the record into one number using James’ formula for Fibonacci win score, which looks at winning percentage and games over .500.
By this criteria, Misiorowski has a sparkling game score record of 24-4, which translates to an MLB-best 40.57 Fibonacci win score. I love that 24-4 record, which harkens back to the actual win-loss records posted in the 1980s by Dwight Gooden in 1985 and Roger Clemens a year later. Misiorowski’s 2026 season is the 2020s equivalent to those memorable seasons by similarly splashy phenoms from a different era.
As for our other 2026 front-runners, their results are: Sanchez (18-13, 15.45), Sale (17-9, 19.12), Yamamoto (17-10, 17.7) and Luzardo (21-8, 28.2).
Case closed?
Most Valuable Player
American League
Front-runner: Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros (146.9 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees (143.0); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (139.7); 4. Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays (136.3); 5. Kevin McGonigle, Detroit Tigers (135.8); 6. Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians (132.6); 7. Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (131.7); 8. Randy Arozarena, Seattle Mariners (131.3); 9. Drew Rasmussen, Rays (128.6); 10. Ezequiel Duran, Texas Rangers (127.7)
Leader trend: Alvarez’s second-half slowdown has opened the door for someone to run him down in this race. No one has. In many ways, first-half Yordan undermined second-half Yordan by being so locked in. Since the All-Star break, he has seen 4.1% fewer pitches in the zone overall and 5.8% fewer with men on base. Still, the Astros are in position to eke out an AL West crown and Alvarez has a whopping lead in both win probability added and championship probability added among MLB hitters. Houston would be well out of the race without Alvarez even if his slower second half means no Triple Crown.
Biggest mover: Though Caminero still lags behind by AXE, he has moved up the board a couple of spots and is running second to Alvarez in the betting markets. In explaining Caminero’s somewhat-disappointing AXE rank last time around, I pointed out that a lot of his homers had come in low-leverage spots. Since then, he has hammered a couple of winners, including in the game that clinched a playoff slot for the Rays. That’s the kind of thing that grabs the attention of voters.
Keep an eye on: Schlitter has an uphill battle, but if I’d included pitchers in the MVP tables earlier, he would have been a fixture all season. Now he’s earning a little buzz both in articles speculating on awards consideration and the betting markets. I don’t think he’ll win, but for a 2026 starting pitching to get so prominently mentioned, that tells you all you need to know about how dynamic he has been.
National League
Front-runner: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (165.3 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (145.9); 3. Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies (143.7); 4. Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers (141.7); 5. Brice Turang, Brewers (139.7); 6. Jesus Luzardo, Phillies (139.3); 7. Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves (136.3); 8. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (135.3); 9. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (133.8); 10. Gabriel Moreno, Arizona Diamondbacks (131.1)
Leader trend: The 2026 NL MVP race is over, and now PCA is racing against history. MLB.com’s Mike Petriello pointed out that Crow-Armstrong has an unheard of chance to lead baseball in both offensive and defensive runs above average, per FanGraphs. He’s three steals away from a 40-homer/40-steal season. And with 10.4 fWAR on the board, he has an outside shot of topping Rogers Hornsby’s 11.0 figure in 1929 for the Cubs’ team record. Not a bad body of work.
Biggest mover: De La Cruz went on a recent home run spree and though he’s not going to get much MVP support, he continues to get better and position himself for a run at the award in the near future. His numbers keep getting better even as he remains a darling of the highlight reels. My favorite De La Cruz play this season was a relay throw against the Dodgers last week in which he threw out Teoscar Hernandez at the plate. Hernandez was trying to turn a misplayed ball in center field into an inside-the-park home run. De La Cruz drifted well into the grass to take the throw from JJ Bleday, spun, and fired a 102 mph missile to catcher Jose Trevino to cut Hernandez down by several steps. The best part was as soon as De La Cruz released the throw, he started running off the field, similar to Larry Bird walking off the court at the end of the 1988 3-point contest before his last shot had even gone through the basket. By the time Trevino had slapped the tag on Hernandez, De La Cruz was about eight steps toward the Reds’ dugout. Awesome.
Keep an eye on: I’ve touted Moreno for some down-ballot MVP support before. With the Diamondbacks fighting for their playoff lives, he has a perfect opportunity to turn some heads. Yeah, it’s the end of the ballot, but what else do we have? There’s no drama at the top of it.
Cy Young
American League
Front-runner: Cam Schlittler, Yankees (153.1 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Dylan Cease, Blue Jays (145.8); 3. Parker Messick, Guardians (140.0); 4. Drew Rasmussen, Rays (135.2); 5. Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels (132.6); 6. Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox (129.3); 7. Louis Varland, Blue Jays (127.6); 8. Nick Martinez, Rays (127.6); 9. Max Fried, Yankees (126.3); 10. Payton Tolle, Red Sox (125.8)
Leader trend: When you combine dominance with consistency, you get the kind of season Schlittler has enjoyed. It’s possible Cease could close the gap if Schlittler blows up in his last couple of starts, but there’s no evidence that this will happen. Schlittler had achieved front-runner status by going 12-6 with a 2.09 ERA by the end of August. Then he really got good, going 2-0 with a 0.89 ERA for his first three September outings. Schlittler just keeps getting better.
Biggest mover: Cease has remained outstanding, but in terms of winning a Cy Young, he just picked the wrong season to be this good. Cease does have a slight edge by my game score record methodology, going 22-6 so far for 33.3 Fibonacci win points. Schlittler is 22-9, worth 28.6 FWP. I don’t think it will matter.
Keep an eye on: See Detmers in there, standing out on a bad Angels team that has been out of the chase for months? Detmers was OK before the All-Star break, going 3-6 for a 4.39 ERA, but he has gone beast mode since. Over 11 second-half starts, Detmers is 3-2 with a 1.65 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of nearly seven. Teams that burned organizational resources to acquire starting pitching at the deadline might have looked a little closer to what was happening in Anaheim.
National League
Front-runner: Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (154.5 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers (150.9); 3. Jesus Luzardo, Phillies (148.6); 4. Chris Sale, Braves (144.1); 5. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (141.9); 6. Chase Burns, Reds (136.2); 7. Eduardo Rodriguez, Diamondbacks (135.9); 8. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (134.0); 9. Mason Miller, San Diego Padres (133.0); 10. Michael King, Padres (127.5)
Leader trend: You can probably tell from the slant of the introduction that I favor Misiorowski for the award, even if my own metric suggests it should be Sanchez. So much of Sanchez’s edge in AXE is fueled by a strangely big lead in bWAR that I don’t think is a real thing. Of course, it’s not the only bottom-line metric in which Sanchez leads, so maybe we’re all ignoring reality. Either way, Sanchez’s stinker against the struggling Nationals this week in the midst of the Phillies’ playoff push did no favors for his Cy Young case.
Biggest mover: Luzardo gained 6.9 points of AXE since our last Awards Watch, second in baseball among starting pitchers behind rejuvenated Rays righty Freddy Peralta. Luzardo turned up with a bum shoulder that kills the rest of his regular season and puts his postseason availability in doubt. If there was any chance of Luzardo muscling his way into the NL Cy Young race, the injury nullified it.
Keep an eye on: With the Padres locked in a tight wild-card race, they will need to lean on Miller more than ever. Not only will that fuel his WAR count, but it will give him a lot of chances to rev up what is already the top win probability added and championship probability added figures among NL pitchers. Miller won’t win the Cy Young, or the MVP for that matter, but it will be interesting to see where his final AXE lands, because 133 is already an outlandish number for a relief pitcher.
Rookie of the Year
American League
Front-runner: Kevin McGonigle, Tigers (135.8 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Parker Messick, Guardians (132.6); 3. Tristan Peters, Chicago White Sox (125.5); 4. Payton Tolle, Red Sox (120.4); 5. Chase DeLauter, Guardians (117.6); 6. Carter Jensen, Royals (116.0); 7. Travis Bazzana, Guardians (114.8); 8. Walbert Urena, Angels (114.7); 9. Kazuma Okamoto, Blue Jays (114.7); 10. Victor Mesa Jr., Rays (114.4)
Leader trend: McGonigle isn’t exactly flying under the radar at this point, but he probably hasn’t received enough attention for just how epic his rookie season has been. For one thing, he leads AL hitters in bWAR and is third in the FanGraphs version. Not just rookies — all hitters. According to Baseball Reference, as long as McGonigle’s 6.7 bWAR holds steady or goes up even more, he’ll set the Tigers’ rookie record for hitters set by Donie Bush (6.5). Bush isn’t around to congratulate McGonigle, though. He set the record 117 years ago.
Biggest mover: Tolle has become a real force in the Red Sox rotation. Since the beginning of August, he has gone 3-0 with a 2.44 ERA and 2.37 FIP over eight starts, seven of which Boston has won. He has had one start with 14 strikeouts and no walks, and another walkless outing with 12 whiffs. And that mustache is sublime.
Keep an eye on: Jensen has been building slow momentum all year. He isn’t going to win this award, but he has seized the mantle of catcher of the present and future for an organization that still has Salvador Perez in the majors and Blake Mitchell in the minors. This has already been the best rookie season by a catcher in Royals history, and you can argue that it’s among the 10 best of any K.C. catcher. It’s only going to get better from here.
National League
Front-runner: JJ Wetherholt, St. Louis Cardinals (127.5 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Carson Benge, New York Mets (117.4); 3. TJ Rumfield, Colorado Rockies (117.1); 4. Logan Henderson, Brewers (116.0); 5. Didier Fuentes, Braves (115.8); 6. Nolan McLean, Mets (115.2); 7. Sal Stewart, Reds (113.2); 8. Andrew Alvarez, Washington Nationals (112.7); 9. A.J. Ewing, Mets (110.8); 10. Bryce Eldridge, San Francisco Giants (109.5)
Leader trend: Wetherholt retains a sizable AXE lead, but his edge has eroded steadily because of a second-half slump at the plate followed by a late-August injury that kept him on the IL until this week. The betting markets now favor Stewart in this race, and it’s unclear that a big finish by Wetherholt would change that reality.
Biggest mover: Henderson toils in Misiorowski’s shadow, but he has risen to No. 2 starter status for the Brewers, taking the place of struggling lefty Kyle Harrison. Henderson has gone 7-2 with a 1.95 ERA over 10 starts during the second half. For his career, including three starts in 2025, he’s 13-3 with a 2.22 ERA over 21 outings. Prorated to a per-162-games basis, it all starts to look ridiculous: Henderson projects to 21-5, with 214 strikeouts in 183 innings. He’s really good.
Keep an eye on: Since the Braves figure to be playing some high-profile games in October, this might be a good time acquaint yourself with Fuentes. Just 21, Fuentes was developed as a starter before reaching the majors early this season and joining the Braves’ bullpen. He has been a weapon, with a 7-2 record, three saves and a 2.34 ERA. Among Atlanta’s relievers, only closer Raisel Iglesias has a higher average leverage index. Fuentes might get bumped down a slot when Robert Suarez comes of the IL, but he’s still going to be featured in some huge moments in the playoffs.
Manager of the Year
American League
Front-runner: Kevin Cash, Rays (113.5 EARL)
Next four: 2. Will Venable, White Sox (113.0); 3. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (103.3); 4. Aaron Boone, Yankees (101.5); 5. John Schneider, Blue Jays (100.4)
Overview: The White Sox’s recent struggles have dropped Venable behind Cash, who has won two previous AL Manager of the Year awards during his 12 years with the Rays. No team has exceeded expectation more than Chicago, but the Rays have certainly outperformed their preseason forecast and probably will enter the playoffs as the AL’s top seed. If the White Sox slip out of the playoff picture altogether, Venable might end up as a runner-up in a category he seemed a cinch to win a month ago.
National League
Front-runner: Pat Murphy, Brewers (109.7 EARL)
Next four: 2. Clayton McCullough, Miami Marlins (107.6); 3. Terry Francona, Reds (104.7); 4. Craig Stammen, Padres (104.2); 5. Don Mattingly, Phillies (102.4)
Overview: Murphy should win his third straight award and if he doesn’t, you figure it will be in part because of voter fatigue. But the Brewers are not only the NL’s best team by record, and have again raced past middling preseason forecasts, they’ve done it by turning over several key roster spots from last season. Milwaukee has worked two rookie position players into regular roles — Cooper Pratt and Luis Lara– which is kind of amazing when you consider how well a rookie has to play to help a 100-win team. Breaking in rookies is and always has been a key part of a manager’s job. I could see Mattingly getting some love based on where the Phillies were when he took over, but Murphy looks like the clear answer here.
